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Red Alert – Georgia Intelligence Guidance

Posted by Confucius pe 11 august 2008


August 8, 2008 | 1738 GMT


Georgian artillery
Georgian troops fire rockets at separatist South Ossetian troops Aug. 8

The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.

Given the speed with which the Russians reacted to Georgia’s incursion into South Ossetia, Moscow was clearly ready to intervene. We suspect the Georgians were set up for this in some way, but at this point the buildup to the conflict no longer matters. What matters is the message that Russia is sending to the West.

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev summed this message up best: “Historically Russia has been, and will continue to be, a guarantor of security for peoples of the Caucasus.”

Strategically, we said Russia would respond to Kosovo’s independence, and they have. Russia is now declaring the Caucasus to be part of its sphere of influence. We have spoken for months of how Russia would find a window of opportunity to redefine the region. This is happening now.

All too familiar with the sight of Russian tanks, the Baltic countries are terrified of what they face in the long run, and they should be. This is the first major Russian intervention since the fall of the Soviet Union. Yes, Russia has been involved elsewhere. Yes, Russia has fought. But this is on a new order of confidence and indifference to general opinion. We will look at this as a defining moment.

The most important reaction will not be in the United States or Western Europe. It is the reaction in the former Soviet states that matters most right now. That is the real audience for this. Watch the reaction of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Nagorno-Karabakh and the Balts. How will Russia’s moves affect them psychologically?

The Russians hold a trump card with the Americans: Iran. They can flood Iran with weapons at will. The main U.S. counter is in Ukraine and Central Asia, but is not nearly as painful.

Tactically, there is only one issue: Will the Russians attack Georgia on the ground? If they are going to, the Russians have likely made that decision days ago.

Focus on whether Russia invades Georgia proper. Then watch the former Soviet states. The United States and Germany are of secondary interest at this point.


4 răspunsuri to “Red Alert – Georgia Intelligence Guidance”

  1. Interesanta analiza. Intre timp, lucrurile au evoluat in mod ingrijorator. Voiam de fapt doar sa te salut si sa iti urez toate cele bune.

  2. Confucius said

    Bine ai revenit din vacanta, Corina! Eu am avut de fapt doar o saptamana de asa ceva. Din pacate nu am mai avut timp sa ma mai ocup de blog, desi in masina in orele de trafic imi vin multe idei…

    Ceea ce se intampla la nivel geopolitic este intr-adevar preocupant. Iar daca adaugam ce se intampla la nivel geo-financiar chiar e de-a dreptul ingrijorator. Cand cele doua crize se vor fi terminat lumea va functiona pe alte coordonate. Dar in Romania e deocamdata multa veselie pigmentata cu harjoneli de vacanta.

  3. Focus on whether Russia invades Georgia proper. Then watch the former Soviet states. The United States and Germany are of secondary interest at this point.

    SUA i-a incurajat pe georgieni. Saakashvilii e omul lui Bush lafel ca Basescu si celălalalt din Ucraina.

  4. radu said

    acesta este doar inceputul… lucrurile evolueaza cu o viteza naucitoare, iar vechile randuieli se sparg treptat lasand loc haosului.
    Din haos logic va urma ordine

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